ABSTRACT
Student dropout, defined as the temporary or definitive suspension of the exercise of the right to education, is attributable to multiple variables classified into individual, academic, institutional, and socioeconomic determinants which may be exacerbated in the context of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Consequently, this work aims to synthesize, from the available evidence, the behaviour and influence of the explanatory variables of school dropout in infant school, primary school and, high school in Colombia for the period 2014-2019 compared to the period 2020-2021 under the COVID-19 pandemic conditions. The research methodology consisted of a systematic review of 125 indexed articles for 2014-2019 and 32 reports related to dropout in Colombian Basic education for the 2020-2021 period. The systematic review of the 157 articles revealed that dropout was studied and explained in both time periods, mainly from the academic determinant whose most cited explanatory variables were: ‘teachers’, ‘curriculum’ and ‘methodologies used’. Moreover, it could be perceived that in the period 2014-2019, the socioeconomic variable was the second dropout determinant, considering ‘family income” as the most important indicator, while in 2020-2021 the “infrastructure” and the ‘political environment’ remained as the most dominant. Lastly, in 2020-2021, the variable ‘teachers’ was highly cited showing that their practice made students maintain their interest despite the physical distance. © 2022 The Author(s).
ABSTRACT
Higher education is one of the ways to overcome social inequalities in rural areas in developing countries. This has led states to develop public policies aimed at access, retention and timely graduation of students in those sectors, yet the high drop-out rates among the rural student population, which were catalysed by COVID-19, prevent the intrinsic and extrinsic benefits of obtaining a higher education degree from materialising. Thus, the study of the phenomenon of dropout before and after the pandemic has not sufficiently addressed the economic issues raised by this phenomenon for the different actors at the educational level. The purpose of this paper is to model the economic effects of rural student dropout at the higher education level for students and families, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and the State, based on public policies for access to higher education, in the pandemic and post-pandemic scenario. In order to delimit the operationalisation of the proposed model, a set of undergraduate training programmes in Colombia was taken as a reference. System dynamics was used as the main modelling technique. The model was based on data from the 20 training programmes with the highest number of students enrolled in rural areas for the year 2019, by running three computational simulations. The results showed the description of the dynamic model and the financial effects of dropout for the actors of the educational level with the current policies of access to higher education, the scenario in which COVID-19 would not have occurred and the consolidation of the public policy of tuition fee exemption in public HEIs as a result of the pandemic. It was concluded that the model developed is very useful for the valuation of these economic effects and for decision-making on policies to be implemented, given that the costs of dropout are characterised by high costs for students and their families as well as for HEIs, and where it was determined that current policies are inefficient in preventing and mitigating dropout. Copyright © 2021 Guzmán Rincón, Barragán Moreno and Cala-Vitery.